2020-04-14 COVID-19 Update

Announcement

I have started putting together a timeline of the COVID-19 pandemic, its spread, its effects on the economy, and the government actions taken in response to it. Because I live in Georgia, the timeline focuses on responses by the United States Federal government and by the Georgia state government, but it also includes major milestones from the World Health Organization, private companies, and more. If you're curious, you can take a look at it here.

United States Data 🇺🇸

Here is today's update regarding the spread of COVID-19 in the United States.

US Confirmed Cases: 588,585
US Recovered: 38,374
US Deaths: 24,441 (New Deaths: 1,613)
US Death Rate: 4.2%

Bad News: The overall US death rate rose again to 4.2%. The number of new daily deaths remains above 1,000. Good News: The five-day moving average of the cumulative case doubling period lengthened to 12.5 days. It has been four days since the most recent peak in new confirmed cases and deaths.

Based on today's number of confirmed cases and the current doubling period, here are today's projections if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

April 26 – 1.2 million cases
May 8 – 2.4 million cases
May 21 – 4.7 million cases
June 2 – 9.4 million cases

The five-day moving average of the doubling period for deaths in the United States lengthened to 7.9 days. Based on today's cumulative number of confirmed deaths and the current doubling period, here are today's projections if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

April 21 – 49,000 deaths
April 29 – 98,000 deaths
May 7 – 196,000 deaths
May 15 – 391,000 deaths

NOTE: You can click any chart above to see a larger version

Global Data 🌍

Global Confirmed Cases: 1,949,956
Global Recovered: 213,003 (10.9%)
Global Deaths: 122,992
Global Death Rate: 6.3%

Bad News: The global death rate rose to 6.3%. Good News: The five-day moving average for the global doubling period lengthened to 15.8 days.

Based on today's cases and the current doubling period, here are the projections for the world if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

April 27 – 3.8 million cases
May 11 – 7.6 million cases
May 25 – 15.1 million cases
June 9 – 30.2 million cases

Georgia Data 🍑

These daily updates include data and projections for the state of Georgia because that is where a large number of my family and friends live.

Georgia Confirmed Cases: 14,223

Georgia Cases Currently Hospitalized: 2,769 (19.5%)

Georgia Deaths: 501

Georgia Death Rate: 3.5%

Bad News: The total number of people killed by COVID-19 exceeded 500. The five-day moving average of the doubling period for new deaths in Georgia shortened to 22 days. Good News: The five-day moving average of the doubling period for new cases in Georgia lengthened to 13.9 days.

Based on today's data and the current doubling periods for confirmed cases and deaths, here are today's projections if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

Confirmed Case Projections:

April 27 – 28,000 cases
May 11 – 57,000 cases
May 25 – 114,000 cases
June 8 – 228,000 cases

Death Projections:

May 5 – 1,000 deaths
May 27 – 2,000 deaths
June 18 – 4,000 deaths
July 10 – 8,000 deaths

Positive & Useful News

In an effort to provide some relief from the endless stream of scary news about COVID-19, these daily updates will include links to any available positive or constructive news related to this disease. Here are today's links:

LeeCo Blog – Lee Edwin Coursey

Tuesday, April 14, 2020