2020-04-15 COVID-19 Update

Two Important Points About Today's Numbers

Point 1: The number of COVID-19 deaths in New York City soared to more than 10,800, largely driven by city officials adding a slew of presumed coronavirus victims to the official toll. The city has added more than 3,700 additional people who were presumed to have died of the coronavirus but had never tested positive. You can read about their rationale for doing so in this article by the New York Times. This addition of recent deaths presumed to be due to COVID-19 skews today's numbers considerably.

Point 2: Because of revisions, spikes, and reporting issues (such as the totals for the United States always dropping on Mondays,) I have decided to use seven-day moving averages for doubling periods instead of five-day averages. There are advantages and disadvantages to this decision. The major advantage is that my projections will be less affected by single-day events like New York's revision and the weekly Monday "drop." The disadvantage is that my projections will always be slightly behind reality if a rapid change occurs, such as a sudden three-day drop in deaths, for example.

United States Data 🇺🇸

Here is today's update regarding the spread of COVID-19 in the United States.

US Confirmed Cases: 616,642 (+28,057)
US Recovered: 42,235
US Deaths: 28,468 (+4,027)
US Death Rate: 4.6%

Bad News: The overall US death rate rose again to 4.6%. The number of new daily deaths jumped considerably due to New York's revision of its numbers (see the announcement at the top of this post.) Good News: The seven-day moving average of the cumulative case doubling period lengthened to 12.3 days.

Based on today's number of confirmed cases and the current doubling period, here are today's projections if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

April 27 – 1.2 million cases
May 9 – 2.5 million cases
May 21 – 4.9 million cases
June 3 – 9.9 million cases

The seven-day moving average of the doubling period for deaths in the United States remained stable at 6.9 days. Based on today's cumulative number of confirmed deaths and the current doubling period, here are today's projections if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

April 21 – 57,000 deaths
April 28 – 114,000 deaths
May 5 – 228,000 deaths
May 12 – 455,000 deaths

NOTE: You can click any chart above to see a larger version

Global Data 🌍

Global Confirmed Cases: 2,008,850
Global Recovered: 242,771 (12.1%)
Global Deaths: 129,045
Global Death Rate: 6.4%

Bad News: The number of confirmed cases world-wide exceeded two million for the first time. The global death rate rose again to 6.4%. Good News: The seven-day moving average for the global doubling period lengthened to 16.6 days.

Based on today's cases and the current doubling period, here are the projections for the world if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

May 1 – 4.0 million cases
May 18 – 8.0 million cases
June 3 – 16.1 million cases
June 20 – 32.1 million cases

Georgia Data 🍑

These daily updates include data and projections for the state of Georgia because that is where a large number of my family and friends live.

Georgia Confirmed Cases: 14,987 (+764)

Georgia Cases Currently Hospitalized: 2,922 (19.5%)

Georgia Deaths: 552 (+51)

Georgia Death Rate: 3.7%

Bad News: The number of new deaths in Georgia exceeded 50 for the second time. Good News: The seven-day moving average of the doubling period for new cases in Georgia lengthened to 13.3 days.

Based on today's data and the current doubling periods for confirmed cases and deaths, here are today's projections if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

Confirmed Case Projections:

April 28 – 30,000 cases
May 11 – 60,000 cases
May 24 – 120,000 cases
June 7 – 240,000 cases

Death Projections:

May 3 – 1,100 deaths
May 22 – 2,200 deaths
June 10 – 4,400 deaths
June 29 – 8,800 deaths

Positive & Useful News

In an effort to provide some relief from the endless stream of scary news about COVID-19, these daily updates will include links to any available positive or constructive news related to this disease. Here are today's links:

LeeCo Blog – Lee Edwin Coursey

Wednesday, April 15, 2020