2020-03-20 COVID-19 Update

 

United States Data

Here is today's update regarding the spread of COVID-19 in the United States.

• US Confirmed Cases: 15,950
• US Confirmed Deaths: 212
• US Death Rate: 1.33%%

The five-day moving average of the doubling period has reduced again to 1.9 days. (This is not what you want to see – we want the doubling period to increase so it takes longer for cases to double.) Based on today's date, number of confirmed cases, and the current doubling period, here are today's projections:

• 50,000 Cases: March 23 (three days from now)
• 100,000 Cases: March 25 (five days from now)
• 1,000,000 Cases: March 31 (about eleven days from now) <== this is where I'm predicting we may start to see a shortage of ICU beds.
• 10,000,000 Cases: April 6 (a little over two weeks from now) 

The Nature of Exponential Growth and the Doubling Period

When you have anything that grows exponentially (meaning that not only is the amount of Thing X growing, but the number of new instances in any given period is also increasing,) you can compute the doubling period from the rate of growth. The thing many people do not grasp about exponential growth is that it takes less than four doubling periods to move from one order of magnitude to the next (i.e., to go from 100 to 1,000 requires only four doublings, and going from 1,000 to 10,000 also only requires four doublings.):

1,000 =[1]=>  2,000 =[2]=> 4,000 =[3]=> 8,000 =[4]=> 16,000

If the doubling period stays constant, then you will go from 10,000 to 100,000 just as fast as you got from 10 to 100.

I should note that the current doubling period of COVID-19 for the United States – even though it is currently moving in the wrong direction (growing shorter) – is unsustainable because at the current rate the entire population of the country will be a confirmed case by April 16. The curve will inevitably flatten and the doubling period will grow longer at some point. The hope (and prayer) is that isolation, testing, quarantine, and social distancing will flatten the curve before we run out of ICU beds.

Positive News

In an effort to provide some relief from the endless stream of scary news about COVID-19, these daily updates will include links to any available positive news related to this disease. Here are today's links:

• Seattle firm working around the clock to make ventilators
• Mylan Ramps Up Production of Hydroxychloroquine as a Potential COVID-19 Treatment
• What Exactly Is Hydroxychloroquine, A Potential Coronavirus Treatment
• Novartis commits to donate up to 130 million doses of hydroxychloroquine to support the global COVID-19 pandemic response
• Is Hydroxychloroquine the Answer to the Coronavirus Pandemic? 
• French study finds anti-malarial and antibiotic combo could reduce COVID-19 duration
• Coronavirus: Combination of antimalarial medication and antibiotics could shorten COVID-19, researchers say
• Doctors find favipiravir and chloroquine effective in COVID-19 treatment
• Favipiravir works! Preliminary Clinical Studies Suggest Positive Effects on COVID-19 Patients (note this is a press release by the manufacturer)
• Japanese drug making waves treating coronavirus. Will it come to U.S.?
• Greek Sepsis Researchers Discover Mechanism Leading to Coronavirus Pneumonia, Possible Treatment