Thursday, April 2, 2020

2020-04-02 COVID-19 Update


Here are updated numbers and projections for the COVID-19 pandemic.

United States Data 🇺🇸

Here is today's update regarding the spread of COVID-19 in the United States.
  • US Confirmed Cases: 226,729
  • US Confirmed Deaths: 5,345
  • US Death Rate: 2.36%
Bad News: The overall US death rate rose again to 2.36%. The number of new daily confirmed cases exceeded 20,000 for the fourth time. The number of new confirmed daily deaths exceeded 1,000 for the second time. Good News: The five-day moving average of the cumulative case doubling period lengthened again to 4.5 days. (Extending the doubling period means the growth curve is flattening slightly.)

Based on today's number of confirmed cases and the current doubling period, here are today's projections if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:
  • 450,000 Cases: April 6 (four days from now)
  • 900,000 Cases: April 10 (about ten days from now)
  • 1,800,000 Cases: April 15 (about two weeks from now) 
The five-day moving average of the doubling period for deaths in the United States is currently 3.2 days. Based on today's cumulative number of confirmed deaths and the current doubling period, here are today's projections if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:
  • 10,000 Deaths: April 5 (three days from now)
  • 40,000 Deaths: April 11
  • 150,000 Deaths: April 17
  • 350,000 Deaths: April 21



NOTE: You can click any chart above to see a larger version.

Global Data 🌍

  • Global Confirmed Cases: 982,414
  • Global Confirmed Recovered: 205,872 (21%)
  • Global Confirmed Deaths: 50,280
  • Global Death Rate: 5.1%
Bad News: The global death rate continued to increase to 5.1%. Good News: The five-day moving average for the global doubling period lengthened to 7.8 days.

Based on today's cases and the current doubling period, here are the projections for the world if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:
  • 1,000,000 Cases: April 2  (tomorrow)
  • 10,000,000 Cases: April 29  (about four weeks from today)
  • 50,000,000 Cases: May 14  (about six weeks away)

Georgia Data 🍑

These daily updates include data and projections for the state of Georgia because that is where a large number of my family and friends live.
  • Georgia Confirmed Cases: 5,348
  • Georgia Cases Currently Hospitalized: 1,056 (20%)
  • Georgia Confirmed Deaths: 163
  • Georgia Death Rate: 3.0%
Bad News: The number of people hospitalized exceeded 1,000 for the first time. Good News: The overall death rate stayed stable at 3.0%. The five-day moving average of the doubling period for Georgia lengthened slightly to 5.5 days.

Based on today's number of confirmed cases and the current doubling period, here are today's projections if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:
  • 10,000 Cases: April 9 (about a week from now)
  • 100,000 Cases: April 25 (four weeks from now)
  • 1,000,000 Cases: May 11 (about six weeks from now)



Positive & Useful News

In an effort to provide some relief from the endless stream of scary news about COVID-19, these daily updates will include links to any available positive or constructive news related to this disease. Here are today's links:

Treatments, Testing, and Vaccines

    Medical and Protective Equipment for Healthcare Workers

      Data Sources

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