Wednesday, March 18, 2020

2020-03-18 COVID-19 Update

United States Data

Here is today's update regarding the spread of COVID-19 in the United States.
  • US Confirmed Cases: 6,943
  • US Confirmed Deaths: 111
  • US Death Rate: 1.60%
The five-day moving average of the doubling period has remained constant at 2.5 days. Based on today's date, number of confirmed cases, and the current doubling period, here are today's projections:
  • 10,000 Cases: March 19 (tomorrow)
  • 100,000 Cases: March 28 (ten days from now)
  • 1,000,000 Cases: April 5 (about eighteen days from now)
  • 10,000,000 Cases: April 14 (about four weeks from now)

Global Data

Here are today's numbers and projections for the world, based on data from the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 tracker.
  • Global Confirmed Cases: 207,518
  • Global Confirmed Deaths: 8,248
  • Global Death Rate: 3.97%
The death rate for the globe and the death rate for all countries excluding China has moved upward. The death rate globally ten days ago was 3.4%. Today it is 3.97%. Unfortunately, this is to be expected as the hospital systems of the various countries are overwhelmed, and patients requiring respirators to survive are not able to get them.

The five-day moving average of the global doubling period is shortening, now at 9.2 days. This means that new confirmed cases are increasing faster than before. Here are today's projections for the world:
  • 1,000,000 Cases: April 6 (about three weeks from now)
  • 10,000,000 Cases:  May 12 (eight weeks from now)
  • 100,000,000 Cases: June 9 (twelve weeks from now)
If you're interested, here's a link to the spreadsheet in which I'm tracking this. Note that the worksheet has five tabs, so you'll have to browse the tabs to see everything. 

Positive News 

In an effort to provide some relief from the endless stream of scary news about COVID-19, these daily updates will include links to any available positive news related to this disease. Here are today's links:
 

No comments:

Post a Comment