Wednesday, March 25, 2020

2020-03-25 COVID-19 Update

United States Data

Here is today's update regarding the spread of COVID-19 in the United States.
  • US Confirmed Cases: 57,213 
  • US Confirmed Deaths: 798
  • US Death Rate: 1.39%
TWO BITS OF GOOD NEWS: (1) Today is the first day that the number of new cases is significantly lower than the day before. Whereas one data point doesn't represent a trend, it's nevertheless a welcome piece of news. (2) The five-day moving average of the doubling period lengthened to 2.5 days. The only bit of bad news is that the death rate has increased for the first time.

Based on today's number of confirmed cases and the current doubling period, here are today's projections if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:
  • 100,000 Cases: March 27 (two days from now)
  • 1,000,000 Cases: April 5 (about ten days from now)
  • 10,000,000 Cases: April 12 (about two and a half weeks from now) 


Global Data

  • Global Confirmed Cases: 438,667
  • Global Confirmed Recovered: 108,252 (25%)
  • Global Confirmed Deaths: 19,754
  • Global Death Rate: 4.5%
The trends for the global data remain bad. The death rate continues to rise (now 4.5%), and the five-day moving average for the global doubling period shortened to 6.2 days. Based on today's cases and the current doubling period, here are the projections for the world if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:
  • 500,000 Cases: March 26  (tomorrow)
  • 1,000,000 Cases: April 5 
  • 10,000,000 Cases: April 20
  • 100,000,000 Cases: May 13

Georgia Data

I have added data and projections for the state of Georgia because that is where a large number of my family and friends live.
  • Georgia Confirmed Cases: 1,247 
  • Georgia Confirmed Deaths: 40
  • Georgia Death Rate: 3.2%
The five-day moving average of the doubling period for Georgia lengthened to 3.0 days. Based on today's number of confirmed cases and the current doubling period, here are today's projections if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:
  • 10,000 Cases: April 3 (about ten days from now)
  • 100,000 Cases: April 14 (three weeks from now)
  • 1,000,000 Cases: April 24 (about four weeks from now)

Positive & Useful News

In an effort to provide some relief from the endless stream of scary news about COVID-19, these daily updates will include links to any available positive or constructive news related to this disease. Here are today's links:

Treatments and Vaccine 

Testing

Medical and Protective Equipment for Healthcare Workers

Data Sources

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