2020-04-04 COVID-19 Update

Here are updated numbers and projections for the COVID-19 pandemic.

United States Data 🇺🇸

Here is today's update regarding the spread of COVID-19 in the United States.

• US Confirmed Cases: 292,069
• US Confirmed Deaths: 7,851
• US Death Rate: 2.69%

A Note: The United States has 4% of the world's population but now has 25% of the confirmed global cases of COVID-19.

Bad News: The overall US death rate rose again to 2.69%. The number of new daily confirmed cases exceeded 30,000 for the first time. The number of new confirmed daily deaths exceeded 1,000 for the fourth time. The five-day moving average of the cumulative case doubling period shortened slightly to 4.8 days. Good News: There is no good news (from a statistical perspective) today.

Based on today's number of confirmed cases and the current doubling period, here are today's projections if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

• April 8  –  584,137 cases
• April 13 – 1.1 million cases
• April 18 – 2.3 million cases
• April 23 – 4.6 million cases

The five-day moving average of the doubling period for deaths in the United States has shortened to 2.9 days. Based on today's cumulative number of confirmed deaths and the current doubling period, here are today's projections if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

• April 6 – 15,701 deaths
• April 9 – 31,000 deaths
• April 12 – 63,000 deaths
• April 15 – 125,000 deaths

NOTE: You can click any chart above to see a larger version.

Global Data 🌍

• Global Confirmed Cases: 1,152,567
• Global Confirmed Recovered: 242,771 (21%)
• Global Confirmed Deaths: 62,568
• Global Death Rate: 5.4%

Bad News: The number of people killed in one day exceeded 7,000 for the first time. The global death rate continued to increase to 5.4%. The five-day moving average for the global doubling period shortened to 8.1 days. Good News: There is no good news (from a statistical perspective) today.

Based on today's cases and the current doubling period, here are the projections for the world if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

• April 12 – 2.3 million cases
• April 20 – 4.6 million cases
• April 28 – 9.2 million cases
• May 6 – 18.4 million cases
  

Georgia Data 🍑

These daily updates include data and projections for the state of Georgia because that is where a large number of my family and friends live.

• Georgia Confirmed Cases: 6,160
• Georgia Cases Currently Hospitalized: 1,239 (20%)
• Georgia Confirmed Deaths: 201
• Georgia Death Rate: 3.3%

Bad News: The overall death rate in Georgia increased to 3.3%. The Georgia death rate remains higher than the national average. Good News: The number of new daily deaths in Georgia fell below 20 for the first time in five days. The five-day moving average of the doubling period for Georgia lengthened slightly to 6.0 days. That makes an entire week in which the doubling period for Georgia has increased every day.

Based on today's number of confirmed cases and the current doubling period, here are today's projections if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

• April 9 – 12,320 cases
• April 15 – 24,640 cases
• April 21 – 49,280 cases
• April 27 – 98,560 cases

 

Positive & Useful News

In an effort to provide some relief from the endless stream of scary news about COVID-19, these daily updates will include links to any available positive or constructive news related to this disease. Here are today's links:

Treatments, Testing, and Vaccines

• Bill Gates is funding factories for 7 coronavirus vaccine candidates
• Bronx Leads First New York State COVID-19 Drug Trial
• Why we're overestimating the mortality rate for COVID-19
• Kroger, Walmart Testing One-Way Grocery Aisles to Improve Social Distancing  
• Bandage-like coronavirus vaccine shows promising results in mice 
• Japan Is Racing to Test a Favipiravir, a Drug to Treat Covid-19
• Japan might dispense flu drug Avigan to other countries for free as COVID-19 treatment 
• Atlanta Couple From Diamond Princess Donates Blood For Coronavirus Vaccine, Cure

Medical and Protective Equipment for Healthcare Workers

• FDA Reverses Course, Approves China’s Equivalent Of The N95 Mask To Protect Against Coronavirus
• Coronavirus: NC Furniture Maker To Procure Millions Of N95 Masks 

Data Sources

• Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline - BNO News
• Cases in U.S. | CDC
• COVID-19 Real Time Updates With Credible Sources | 1Point3Acres 
• Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) - Johns Hopkins
• COVID-19 Daily Status Report | Georgia Department of Public Health