2020-04-05 COVID-19 Update

Here are updated numbers and projections for the COVID-19 pandemic.

United States Data 🇺🇸

Here is today's update regarding the spread of COVID-19 in the United States.

US Confirmed Cases: 321,456
US Confirmed Deaths: 9,122
US Death Rate: 2.8%

A Note: The United States has 4% of the world's population but now has 25% of the confirmed global cases of COVID-19.

Bad News: The overall US death rate rose again to 2.8%. The number of new confirmed daily deaths exceeded 1,000 for the fifth day in a row. Good News: The five-day moving average of the cumulative case doubling period lengthened slightly to 5.3 days.

Based on today's number of confirmed cases and the current doubling period, here are today's projections if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

April 10 – 642,911 cases (five days from now)
April 15 – 1.3 million cases (ten days from now)
April 20 – 2.6 million cases
April 26 – 5.1 million cases
May 1 – 10.3 million cases (about four weeks away)

The five-day moving average of the doubling period for deaths in the United States has lengthened to 3.2 days. Based on today's cumulative number of confirmed deaths and the current doubling period, here are today's projections if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

April 8 – 18,244 deaths
April 11 – 36,488 deaths
April 14 – 72,976 deaths
April 17 – 145,952 deaths

NOTE: You can click any chart above to see a larger version.

Global Data 🌍

Global Confirmed Cases: 1,240,492
Global Confirmed Recovered: 108,252
Global Confirmed Deaths: 67,730
Global Death Rate: 5.5%

Bad News: The global death rate continued to increase to 5.5%. Good News: The five-day moving average for the global doubling period lengthened slightly to 8.2 days.

Based on today's cases and the current doubling period, here are the projections for the world if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

April 13 – 2.5 million cases
April 21 – 5.0 million cases
April 29 – 9.9 million cases
May 7 – 19.8 million cases

Georgia Data 🍑

These daily updates include data and projections for the state of Georgia because that is where a large number of my family and friends live.

Georgia Confirmed Cases: 6,647
Georgia Cases Currently Hospitalized: 1,283 (19.3%)
Georgia Confirmed Deaths: 211
Georgia Death Rate: 3.2%

Bad News: The Georgia death rate remains higher than the national average. Good News: The overall death rate in Georgia decreased to 3.2%. The five-day moving average of the doubling period for Georgia lengthened again to 7.4 days. That makes an entire week in which the doubling period for Georgia has increased every day.

Based on today's number of confirmed cases and the current doubling period, here are today's projections if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

April 12 – 13,294 cases
April 19 – 26,588 cases
April 27 – 53,176 cases
May 4 – 106,352 cases

Positive & Useful News

In an effort to provide some relief from the endless stream of scary news about COVID-19, these daily updates will include links to any available positive or constructive news related to this disease. Here are today's links:

LeeCo Blog – Lee Edwin Coursey

Sunday, April 5, 2020