2020-04-11 COVID-19 Update

United States Data 🇺🇸

Here is today's update regarding the spread of COVID-19 in the United States.

US Confirmed Cases: 506,740
US Confirmed Deaths: 19,624 (New Deaths: 1,792)
US Death Rate: 3.9%

Bad News: The overall US death rate rose again to 3.9%. The number of new daily cases exceeded 30,000 for the fifth time. The five-day moving average of the cumulative case doubling period shortened to 8.7 days. Good News: The number of new daily deaths was the lowest of the past four days.

Based on today's number of confirmed cases and the current doubling period, here are today's projections if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

April 19 – 1.0 million cases
April 28 – 2.0 million cases
May 7 – 4.1 million cases
May 15 – 8.1 million cases

The five-day moving average of the doubling period for deaths in the United States shortened to 5.0 days. Based on today's cumulative number of confirmed deaths and the current doubling period, here are today's projections if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

April 15 – 39,000 deaths
April 20 – 78,000 deaths
April 25 – 157,000 deaths
April 30 – 314,000 deaths

NOTE: You can click any chart above to see a larger version.

Global Data 🌍

Global Confirmed Cases: 1,738,814
Global Confirmed Recovered: 185,289 (10.7%)
Global Confirmed Deaths: 106,799
Global Death Rate: 6.1%

Bad News: The five-day moving average for the global doubling period shortened to 11.6 days. Good News: The global death rate remained stable at 6.1%.

Based on today's cases and the current doubling period, here are the projections for the world if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

April 22 – 3.5 million cases
May 4 – 7.0 million cases
May 15 – 13.9 million cases
May 27 – 27.8 million cases

Georgia Data 🍑

These daily updates include data and projections for the state of Georgia because that is where a large number of my family and friends live.

Georgia Confirmed Cases: 12,159

Georgia Cases Currently Hospitalized: 2,479 (20.4%)

Georgia Confirmed Deaths: 428

Georgia Death Rate: 3.5%

Good News: The five-day moving average of the doubling period for new cases in Georgia lengthened to 7.9 days. The five-day moving average of the doubling period for new deaths in Georgia lengthened to 11.0 days. The number of new confirmed cases was below 1,000.

Based on today's data and the current doubling periods for confirmed cases (7.9 days) and deaths (11.0 days), here are today's projections if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

Confirmed Case Projections:

April 18 – 24,000 cases
April 26 – 49,000 cases
May 4 – 97,000 cases
May 12 – 195,000 cases

Death Projections:

April 21 – 900 deaths
May 2 – 1,700 deaths
May 13 – 3,400 deaths
May 24 – 6,800 deaths

Positive & Useful News

In an effort to provide some relief from the endless stream of scary news about COVID-19, these daily updates will include links to any available positive or constructive news related to this disease. Here are today's links:

LeeCo Blog – Lee Edwin Coursey

Saturday, April 11, 2020