2020-04-12 COVID-19 Update

United States Data 🇺🇸

Here is today's update regarding the spread of COVID-19 in the United States.

US Confirmed Cases: 541,466
US Confirmed Deaths: 21,435 (New Deaths: 1,811)
US Death Rate: 4.0%

So far in the month of April, COVID-19 has killed an average of 1,500 Americans per day. For comparison, the annual seasonal flu kills about 100 Americans per day. Automobiles kill about 95 per day. Guns kill about 110 per day.

Bad News: The overall US death rate rose again to 4.0%. The number of new daily cases exceeded 30,000 for the sixth time. The number of total deaths from COVID-19 surpassed 20,000. Good News: The five-day moving average of the cumulative case doubling period lengthened to 9.3 days.

Based on today's number of confirmed cases and the current doubling period, here are today's projections if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

April 21 – 1.1 million cases
April 30 – 2.2 million cases
May 9 – 4.3 million cases
May 19 – 8.7 million cases

The five-day moving average of the doubling period for deaths in the United States lengthened to 5.6 days. Based on today's cumulative number of confirmed deaths and the current doubling period, here are today's projections if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

April 17 – 43,000 deaths
April 23 – 86,000 deaths
April 28 – 171,000 deaths
May 4 – 343,000 deaths

NOTE: You can click any chart above to see a larger version.

Global Data 🌍

Global Confirmed Cases: 1,828,639
Global Confirmed Recovered: 188,998 (10.3%)
Global Confirmed Deaths: 112,623
Global Death Rate: 6.2%

Bad News: The global death rate increased to 6.2%. Good News: The five-day moving average for the global doubling period lengthened to 12.4 days.

Based on today's cases and the current doubling period, here are the projections for the world if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

April 24 – 3.7 million cases
May 6 – 7.3 million cases
May 19 – 14.6 million cases
May 31 – 29.3 million cases

Georgia Data 🍑

These daily updates include data and projections for the state of Georgia because that is where a large number of my family and friends live.

Georgia Confirmed Cases: 12,452

Georgia Cases Currently Hospitalized: 2,505 (20.1%)

Georgia Confirmed Deaths: 433

Georgia Death Rate: 3.5%

Good News: The five-day moving average of the doubling period for new cases in Georgia lengthened to 13 days. The five-day moving average of the doubling period for new deaths in Georgia lengthened to 22.6 days. The number of new confirmed cases was the lowest level seen in the month of April.

Based on today's data and the current doubling periods for confirmed cases (13 days) and deaths (22.6 days), here are today's projections if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

Confirmed Case Projections:

April 25 – 25,000 cases
May 8 – 50,000 cases
May 21 – 100,000 cases
June 3 – 199,000 cases

Death Projections:

May 4 – 900 deaths
May 27 – 1,700 deaths
June 18 – 3,500 deaths
July 11 – 6,900 deaths

Positive & Useful News

In an effort to provide some relief from the endless stream of scary news about COVID-19, these daily updates will include links to any available positive or constructive news related to this disease. Here are today's links:

LeeCo Blog – Lee Edwin Coursey

Sunday, April 12, 2020