2020-04-07 COVID-19 Update

United States Data 🇺🇸

Here is today's update regarding the spread of COVID-19 in the United States.

US Confirmed Cases: 374,754
US Confirmed Deaths: 11,456
US Death Rate: 3.1%

Bad News: The overall US death rate rose again to 3.1%. The number of new daily deaths was the highest yet recorded (about 1,500.) The number of new daily cases exceeded 30,000 for the second time. Good News: The five-day moving average of the cumulative case doubling period lengthened again to 7.2 days.

Based on today's number of confirmed cases and the current doubling period, here are today's projections if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

April 14 – 749,507 cases
April 21 – 1.5 million cases
April 28 – 3.0 million cases
May 5 – 6.0 million cases

The five-day moving average of the doubling period for deaths in the United States has lengthened to 4.6 days. Based on today's cumulative number of confirmed deaths and the current doubling period, here are today's projections if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

April 11 – 23,000 deaths
April 16 – 46,000 deaths
April 20 – 92,000 deaths
April 25 – 183,000 deaths

NOTE: You can click any chart above to see a larger version.

Global Data 🌍

Global Confirmed Cases: 1,385,323
Global Confirmed Recovered: 125,875
Global Confirmed Deaths: 78,973
Global Death Rate: 5.7%

Bad News: The global death rate rose again to 5.7%. Good News: The five-day moving average for the global doubling period lengthened again to 10.6 days.

Based on today's cases and the current doubling period, here are the projections for the world if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

April 17 – 2.8 million cases
April 28 – 5.5 million cases
May 8 – 11.1 million cases
May 19 – 22.2 million cases

Georgia Data 🍑

These daily updates include data and projections for the state of Georgia because that is where a large number of my family and friends live.

Georgia Confirmed Cases: 8,818
Georgia Cases Currently Hospitalized: 1,774 (20.1%)
Georgia Confirmed Deaths: 329
Georgia Death Rate: 3.7%

Bad News: The Georgia death rate remains higher than the national average. The number of new confirmed cases and new confirmed deaths were both record highs. The overall death rate in Georgia increased to 3.7%. The five-day moving average of the doubling period for Georgia shortened to 7.9 days. Good News: There is no good news today from a statistical perspective.

Based on today's number of confirmed cases and the current doubling period, here are today's projections if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

April 14 – 18,000 cases
April 22 – 35,000 cases
April 30 – 71,000 cases
May 8 – 141,000 cases

Positive & Useful News

In an effort to provide some relief from the endless stream of scary news about COVID-19, these daily updates will include links to any available positive or constructive news related to this disease. Here are today's links:

LeeCo Blog – Lee Edwin Coursey

Tuesday, April 7, 2020