2020-04-09 COVID-19 Update

United States Data 🇺🇸

Here is today's update regarding the spread of COVID-19 in the United States.

US Confirmed Cases: 436,593
US Confirmed Deaths: 15,282 (New Deaths: 1,910)
US Death Rate: 3.5%

Bad News: The overall US death rate rose again to 3.5%. The number of new daily deaths was almost the same as yesterday's record high (about 1,900.) The number of new daily cases exceeded 30,000 for the third time. Good News: The five-day moving average of the cumulative case doubling period lengthened again to 8.6 days.

Based on today's number of confirmed cases and the current doubling period, here are today's projections if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

April 17 – 873,186 cases
April 26 – 1.7 million cases
May 4 – 3.5 million cases
May 13 – 7.0 million cases

The five-day moving average of the doubling period for deaths in the United States has lengthened to 5.1 days. Based on today's cumulative number of confirmed deaths and the current doubling period, here are today's projections if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

April 14 – 31,000 deaths
April 19 – 61,000 deaths
April 24 – 122,000 deaths
April 29 – 245,000 deaths

NOTE: You can click any chart above to see a larger version.

Global Data 🌍

Global Confirmed Cases: 1,542,666
Global Confirmed Recovered: 153,395
Global Confirmed Deaths: 90,974
Global Death Rate: 5.9%

Good News: The five-day moving average for the global doubling period lengthened again to 12.3 days. The global death rate remained stable at 5.9%.

Based on today's cases and the current doubling period, here are the projections for the world if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

April 21 – 3.1 million cases
May 3 – 6.2 million cases
May 15 – 12.3 million cases
May 28 – 24.7 million cases

Georgia Data 🍑

These daily updates include data and projections for the state of Georgia because that is where a large number of my family and friends live.

Georgia Confirmed Cases: 10,566
Georgia Cases Currently Hospitalized: 2,159 (20.4%)
Georgia Confirmed Deaths: 379
Georgia Death Rate: 3.6%

Bad News: The Georgia death rate remains higher than the national average. The five-day moving average of the doubling period for new cases in Georgia shortened to 7.1 days. The total number of confirmed cases in Georgia exceeded 10,000 for the first time. Good News: The overall death rate in Georgia dropped for the first time to 3.6%.

Based on today's data and the current doubling periods for confirmed cases (7.1 days) and deaths (9.2 days), here are today's projections if nothing changes and the doubling period remains constant:

April 16 – 21,000 cases
April 23 – 42,000 cases
April 30 – 85,000 cases
May 7 – 169,000 cases

April 18 – 800 deaths
April 27 – 1,500 deaths
May 6 – 3,000 deaths
May 15 – 6,100 deaths

Positive & Useful News

In an effort to provide some relief from the endless stream of scary news about COVID-19, these daily updates will include links to any available positive or constructive news related to this disease. Here are today's links:

LeeCo Blog – Lee Edwin Coursey

Thursday, April 9, 2020